GIGO the MSM and the Economy

GIGO is an acronym that stands for "Garbage In, Garbage Out." It's a computing term referencing how computer outcomes can be incorrect based on bad data. This is something that has been known since the early days of computing and continues to haunt us today. Bad data, or data that has been cherrypicked to provide a specific outcome, is rife in surveys, polling and even massive models for situations such as weather, climate and in this case, the manipulation of an entire massive economy.
We should refer to computer models as tools and examples but not as solid references for the entire spectrum of human behavior.

Liberals, by and large, want to control outcomes. Every aspect of liberal dogma references props they install on flawed core samples. They want "everyone" (and by that they mean loyalists) to be successful no matter what basic skills they possess or what personal choices the individuals have made to enhance or ignore those skills. It began with education where some students were more equal than others to the point of even Ivy League schools assuming test scores not in evidence in order to give the perception that "all" can succeed. While rewarding an aspiring student is not evil, one wonders if that student would have been better served by knowing had they worked harder, paid attention or even showed up for class they would have achieved more. Generations of Americans used to be raised on philosophies found in the fables of "The Little Red Hen" or "The Ant and the Grasshopper" but now are informed they are entitled to succeed by their mere presence. This is the result of trying to insure outcomes.

Moving beyond that into the society at large, we have some populations who pick and choose whether to obey laws. On a small scale it's a situation of failure to yield right of way when driving, but that can explode into road rage in individuals who do not keep their egos in check. When we have liberals on the bench dismissing serious felons out of an overabundance of kindness, it serves no one well. It's one thing to release someone who is truly repentant and no danger to society. It's quite another to do mass releases based on a false premise such as age, gender or race. We have judges, again largely liberal judges, seeking to release people to give the perception of favoritism, again inclined to benefit them politically rather than helping society at large at all.

In addition to the insistence of assuring positive outcomes no matter what, we have a media that for all intents and purposes is taking sides. While many subscribe this to political favoritism it is in reality something far more basic-media survival. The idiom "If it bleeds, it leads" has been applied to and by journalists,, reporters, editors and anchors for as long as "news" as an entity has existed. Today it takes the form of ratings or "clicks" depending on the source. To get eyes on their product, outlets rely on increasingly strident and sometimes even false information to gather favor. When you add to this the narrowing of the news pipeline via attrition of newspapers and their reporters at the local and regional level, you start to recognize how the media as an industry can be easily manipulated using the placement of well placed anonymous sources, whistleblowers or informants. What Woodward and Bernstein glorified as "Deepthroat" has now become an excuse for anyone with an axe to grind to "find" a stooge to create a story. Mark Twain, no slouch when it came to ascerbic observations, said "A lie will travel around the world, while the truth is still lacing up its boots" Nowhere do we see that more openly than in the current 24/7 news cycle.

So we have bad computer models, a media craving clicks and a population that doesn't feel it should have to work very hard in order to maintain what other generations have died for. Let that comment sink in a minute. We've seen the results of allowing the media to stampede the herd of largely uninformed and sometimes politically motivated  populations into action. I remember in 1974, books like "The Late Great Planet Earth" promised overpopulation would drive us to famine and global poverty. We were also told the next great Ice Age was upon us. We endured Odd-Even gas lines, violence and hyperbole based on little more than bad theories and idle rumors. Nothing has changed. This time we see politicians so fearful of the media that they bend the limits of expectation to destroy the largest economy in the world.

Computer models are made by humans. That means human bias, for better or worse, is the soul of any computer model. Computer models forecast the weather. Do you really believe The Farmers' Almanac when planning a summer outdoor wedding? It's based on past events. Guess what, so is every single weather forecast from local news to NOAA. On a larger scale the entire theory of Climate Change is based on a few shaky models that may or may not feature chosen data over all data in order to extort grant money from energy producers. Do you really think it's an accident Al Gore became rich by pushing a heavily flawed narrative? Would he have been so blindly believed if he was not a former vice president of the United States? Celebrity confers assumed status, deserved or not. And by the way, for those still waving the flags on environmental needs, if the planet was in such dire states, why would you choose to exempt the worlds more egregious polluters, China and India? So models are only as good as their data and data can be edited to insure outcomes.

Apply that last sentence to polling and surveys. Early in my career I worked for an in-house advertising agency. We did polling for product design. Much of that polling was more like an eye exam than a true free choice by the consumer.
"A or B? "
"This or that?"
It's very seldom an open ended question with a full and nuanced answer.
This is why students prefer multiple choice tests to essays. It doesn't require the student to actively engage with the outcome of their decision.

Very few polls offer enough diversity of answers or sampling to be truly representative of a nation of 330,000,000. Instead much of what we experience is decided by very small groups often picked because of their anticipated responses rather than a true desire to see what the opinions of the nation at large may be. This is true in what you see on TV, in movies, in every store and business. This is also why those individuals who don't conform to opinions expected from a group are so often vilified. Consider how the media has treated Supreme Court Justice Thomas as opposed to Supreme Court Justice Sotomayor. Which justice swerved the most from societal projections?

Looking at the current situation this nation and its leadership were originally faced with computer models based on questionable data that projected the possibility of 1.2 million Americans dying due to COVID19 (aka Wuhan Virus). The US Center for Disease Control was rebuffed by the Chinese Communist government. Indeed it was said that on January 1, 2020, all samples and data were to be destroyed. Without accurate data, all models became suspect. CDC being an overly cautious organization based in government funding and immune to the vagaries of market change, chose to support the worst case scenario. You can see this in a story from The Hill dated March 13, 2020. The media, sensing a story that would insure their jobs ran with this story not bothering to look at other models. The government, as much subject to the hyperbole of the press as the public, followed suit and shut down the nation's economy while at the same time marshalling massive economic bills and moving truly and equally massive functions to cities projecting they would need them. Here are the results of these actions:

Congress' Attending Physician Predicts 150,000,000 Will Be Infected
Washintgon's Hospital Dismantled Without a Single Patient
Job Losses Could Be 47 Million

So to clarify, the media and politicians have allowed a situation to become economically unbalanced to the point of unfeasibility because they want to insure outcomes. As we move through this season, we are seeing power usurped and wielded in some strange and suppressive ways. A father is arrested for playing tee-ball with his six year old in a deserted park. A man is chased for running on a isolated beach. Neighbors are turning in neighbors for coughing while in their house next door. Is it any wonder that the Founders so feared allowing politicians to have unchecked power over people? How many of the inalienable rights outlined in the Bill of Rights have been suspended? Freedom of assembly, freedom of speech even the freedom to move freely about the country are being constrained by political overreach spurred on by polling (remember what I said about polls...) stampeding them to take action. Please note, while the COVID19 epidemic is a serious outbreak, especially for targeted groups it is not the end all be all dystopian outbreak of movie fame.


Comparitive Graph of Human Pandemics over History

Now we're starting to see lower projected outcomes which the agencies and clinical researchers want to make the population believe is due to washing our hands, social distancing and covering our faces. I've already posted one video of a doctor extensively explain everything about COVID19 from the way you catch it (hand to face) and why washing hands goes much further than wearing a mask.

Doctor Explains COVID19 to his Family (long)

Knowing those facts, better hygiene certainly makes sense. I'm kind of wondering why we are telling adults they need to wash their hands, but enjoying clean shopping carts and having stores clean, newly stocked and nicely organized. This should be on the list of Team Goals to keep after this scare is over. What doesn't make sense is shutting down the economy to the tune of ten million job losses. I don't see how we're meeting any less when the parks are full and the few stores that are open are similarly packed, especially in the early morning when they are stocked with toilet paper. Perhaps we should recommend that certain susceptible groups stay home rather than literally destroying small businesses like Godzilla on meth.

I'm not unsympathetic. My own Mom went into the hospital for heart related issues on the last day of February. From there she was moved to a rehab facility literally on the day that our own local tin-plated icon Judge Jenkins, decided that seniors could not be moved. I have a problem with this-first of all, his assumption that ALL families have homes that could accommodate their senior relatives. My home can't handle my Mom's need for her walker or accessibility to the shower. So she's now had to stay a month past the time her insurance, Humana, wants her to stay because she can't return back to her Dallas county apartment for which she pays $2800 a month. This is unreasonable seizure of goods-because we can't even go in to retrieve her furniture and belongings. It's also virtual imprisonment because any residents who leave cannot return. They are trapped and this is wrong because these are not children, they are ADULTS. For a county judge to decide FOR SENIORS what they may and may not do, where they may and may not go is a major breech of the social contract insured by the Bill of Rights.

Other issues are now rising. The rights to assembly, freedom of worship, free access, freedom of speech and more are now on the chopping block. Under the guise of "Protecting the Public" Democrats in positions of power are attempting to "Insure Outcomes". We've already discussed how it is medically impossible to insure outcomes. We've already discussed how models can be manipulated by providing bad or selected data to create a chosen result. We've seen how the media, under the mask of "Informing The Public" is whipping up fear to a frenzied level creating situations where even an elderly frail women who stumbles into someone else's safe space can be shoved and killed with impunity. Doubt me? Here's the story: First COVID19 Murder

Millions of workers are now in economic, social and emotional pressure. Such conditions lead groups to easily follow whatever information-false or true-that comes across to them. Under such conditions abuse of all kinds can arise. With first responders falling ill due to increased contact, they will be less likely to respond when called. This creates a social environment where someone benefits. Always look for who is benefiting from everyone's bad circumstances. Meanwhile let's sum up.
Here's what we were told last week regarding COVID19 deaths: Statistics

Notice that the death rate, a somber number, is about 39 PER MILLION. That means right now our rate is about 12,753 estimated. Our actual number of deaths from COVID19 so far? According to WHO-the same folks who said until January 14 that there was no human to human transmission: 20K in the US. Other outlets are saying that in some states any death that might be marginally linked to similar issues which could include Congestive Heart Failure, Emphysema, Asthma, Diabetes and more could be included in those statistics. I hate to cast doubt on the doctors who seem to have been given carte blanche to call the shots, but what if those people died of the primary cause and COVID was merely present with few of the symptoms. There's a very real chance many of us had this virus earlier. If you go online there are plenty of folks who had some strange upper respiratory episode back in November but thought it was a cold and even after seeking medical help, went back to their lives without the enforce sequestration we're living in now.

By the way, why is it on the CDC website there's no mortality numbers? Or there's lots of percentages of the number of confirmed cases, but that is worded to sound like far more of the population at large than is really represented. If you want an example of what I consider to be doublespeak by the CDC, Read This

Now here's The WHO website that already says more than it's own estimates which means they aren't even working with real numbers. But here's the bottom line, even with the estimated 60,000 deaths we may ultimately see, the impact on the total population is less than one one hundredth of a percent
impact on the entire population of the US. Most people can't conceive of how little a chance it is.  And yet the news media will lead headlines like "The US today has more cases than any nation in the world." First of all, we don't know that since the Chinese Communist government isn't exactly giving us fully verifiable data. Remember, these are the same folks who LIED ABOUT CORONA VIRUS FOR MONTHS. And remember, there's no promise we won't see this type of virus or the same virus again. Just as with all things, tomorrow is not guaranteed. That being said, at some point we do have to think about tomorrow and decide to stop hiding in fear. And we absolutely need to remind politicians that they are public SERVANTS, not royalty. In addition, we need to remove ourselves from toxic media that seems entirely more interested in their own survival over our own.

Silver Linings: Thoughts on CoronaVirus, Stay At Home Quarantine and Culture

I've basically been in the same "stay at home" mode since February 28th. That was the day I took my Mom to the ER with breathing issues. Of course, even though the nation was not on alert,  COVID-19/Wuhan Virus/CoronaVirus/Chinese Virus was on the radar and was what I feared, since Mom lives in a senior independent living apartment community. But that wasn't the cause-along with diabetes and leukemia, Mom has Congestive Heart Failure. As a result, fluid was pooling in her lungs. I spent two weeks traipsing to the hospital twice a day to monitor progress. She pulled through and on March 11 was moved to a rehab center. Then the hammer dropped. That day her rehab went on lockdown in Collin County. Mom's apartment complex also went on lockdown meaning she could not reenter, even though she's paying the exorbitant rent these facilities demand and was coming from another center due to lockdown. Humana, her insurance, tried to literally shove her out the door over the protests of doctors and physical therapists. Luckily we have just enough to last until the end of April.

I guess you can call that a silver lining, although I would call a pox on Humana leadership that during this crisis seem to have no scope for how people's hands are tied by the legal ramifications of lockdowns and quarantines.Some of the senior nursing homes are seeing clusters of COVID-19 erupt. So far, where Mom is living is safe and she is safe, although bored out of her mind. The staff there is very kind and on strict order where they can't go anywhere even on their own time. I truly appreciate people who are making enormous sacrifices for the welfare of others. When I'm allowed I will  make this up to them. So Mom's safety is a silver lining.

All this could, and did, depress me. I miss my kids. I miss going out with friends. I miss shopping at the store. But on the other hand, I'm out walking twice a day with my dog and saying hello to people I don't know-an unusual behavior in most urban settings. The constant hum of rush hour traffic has dulled where I can hear birds sing in the morning. It makes me feel like Cinderella. The air is fresher and with the abundant rain, the yards and parks are lush with new growth. Since the city has furloughed many workers in parks, these places will begin to grow wild, providing habitats for all kinds of animals and birds in time.

I looked at my bank account and found we spent a thousand dollars LESS staying home. We're not gadabouts, but that number stunned me. I'm cooking and baking more. I'm more careful to avoid waste. I'm having to be very creative because I never know what will be depleted in the store. One day there's no cheese. The next there's no eggs. There's always a lack of frozen food and the fresh produce is come and go. In spite of this we've managed to have enchiladas, steak, hamburgers and shrimp creole from food I stored in the freezer. The silver lining beyond having food to eat is that my husband can never ever again gripe about me buying and storing too much food.

On a larger scale I'm wonder what work at home and homeschooling are doing for and to our culture. I believe that prior to this situation, many Americans were lacking in compassion and empathy for others. Humans had been reduced by modern society to pixels on a screen. The enforced family togetherness is limiting the outside influence of peers to teens. This in turn may change behavior as the outrageous acting out that gets attention in most public schools only gets a shrug or a glare when Mom or Dad are working right across the table from you. I had to laugh when I saw the news stories with parents complaining the lessons they were expected to present were "too hard" or that their children were goofing off and not completing work. Not so easy, is it parents? A million teachers just laughed.

Perhaps from this parents will learn how to establish some discipline, stop blaming teachers for their kids' failures and get more kids off of medications they don't need once structure is applied. That would be a big silver lining. Before you attack, my youngest son is ADHD and was on Ritalin for a long time. When he was 18 he demanded to stop. He hated the way it made him feel. He's managed to become successful in sales. Imagine the 4, 5, and 6 years old enduring these feelings and having no words to describe what is happening to their brains and bodies.Wouldn't having fewer kids on medications be a silver lining?

I wonder if all the cities that offered tax abatements to entities like Amazon and IKEA will suddenly find they don't need all that subsidized office space. My daughter works for a Very Big Bank in their fraud division. She's been working at home since early February. She does her job well, she's not as tired because she doesn't have a 45 minute commute each way  She does miss her friends and performing, but for fun she's turned her garage into a dance studio and is teaching online dances from musicals she's choreographed. My daughter in law is also working at home five days a week, actually logging overtime since her large global company lost an entire call center in American Samoa. I believe that just like homeschooling, there are some who will be reluctant to return to their office cubicles where, let's be honest here, there's so much wasted time. Getting to work at home and having it become more common is definitely a silver lining.

For those in service oriented jobs, being there is a necessity. My two sons each have jobs that require their presence. One works in automotive, the other in bikes. Both are supposed to be working service only, but my youngest son's retail store is getting hammered by people insisting they are entitled to come in and buy stuff. My youngest used to be a bouncer and at six foot four inches and 240 lbs, is built like a linebacker, it's not a good idea to argue with him. He's trying to keep his skeleton staff safe by limiting it to five in the store. I don't know why people have to be belligerent. That they have jobs, even with reduced hours, is a blessing.

On a national scale, I wonder if people will start paying more attention to what they see as opposed to what other people are telling them. I don't see how anyone could watch the task force daily and then believe what is being spewed in the media. I am also wondering if people will start paying attention to secondary stories. I think the stories on the misuse of FISA is huge and that's absolutely being buried by all the CoronaVirus coverage. The story is important because it demonstrates that under the Obama administration DOJ, the FBI was indulging in absolutely illegal, unconstitutional behavior. Likewise the emerging insider trading scandals related to the congressional COVID-19 closed door meeting is another example of corruption that needs to come forward. I think all those participating should be prosecuted including Nancy Pelosi, who right after the hearings bought five million in Amazon stock. That kind of behavior being ousted from Congress would be a silver lining indeed.

In the end, this is all going to come down to attitude. I hope I don't get this virus. There's no real assurance that I won't, but likewise there's no way to know that I haven't already had it and gotten better. I have allergies all the time. Fall and Spring are major allergy triggers for me. I sneeze and cough pretty much all year round. I feel like I need a shirt with a disclaimer "Not Positive, But Allergic" for going to the store. That being said, I'm looking at the numbers and while not great, they aren't as bad as some are claiming. I'm reading about Sweden and Denmark where there are allowing herd immunity to rule. I'm curious if protocols established will work and if some, perhaps even many, of the deaths attributed to COVID-19 were actually only a minor cause for much larger issues that were ignored for the sake of media headlines. Moving the American public away from blind allegiance to ANY media source and returning them to a renewed vigilance on their own constitutional rights. And that would be a big shiny silver lining right there.